In the United States the media will be following retail sales very closely today. This is black Friday which is the busiest shopping day of the entire year. The term black Friday comes as many retailers will finally turn a profit for the year during this time. Many companies which have been in the red all year will finally get into the black. Often many investors will follow the sales or store traffic that takes place this weekend. Spending money is supposed to be good for the economy and many people in the United States will be out shopping for the best deals that money can buy.
On the other side of the pond there are some serious problems talking place in Europe. Italian debt yields have soared sharply higher. Yields on the Italian ten year bond have rocketed higher by more than 7.0 percent. This is telling the world that there are some serious problems in the European Union. Many traders are now expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in the near term . Other market traders and investors are expecting the ECB to ultimately print more money the same way that the Federal Reserve does in the United States. Monetizing the debt will ultimately be the solution for the European Central Bank. As most investors know, when debt is monetized inflation is created and this is also a major headwind for all consumers in Europe.
This morning, the European markets are holding up well trading basically flat on the session. All eyes are on Germany as countries such as France, Italy, and Spain are hoping that Germany will allow the ECB to print money. At this time, Germany has resisted giving the ECB the power to print and create more Euro's for a bailout. Germany is considered the best and most solvent country in the European Union. If the Germans allows the ECB to print money and bailout the European banks this could cause a short term inflation rally. If Germany continues to resist and does not allow the ECB to print money the European Union could begin to break down and collapse very quickly. Germany will simply have to pick their poison, either way, the end result is likely going to be painful before a real solution happens.
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