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Nasdaq - watch this trendline chaps ...........10 min TF

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 25, 2009 at 5:55pm — No Comments

Intraday Market Thought from Ashraf Laidi 2009.11.25 11:56:

USD SELLING NO LONGER TAKING PLACE with the usual advances in oil prices. The inverse correlation between USD index and US crude oil weakened from -0.75 in October to -0.56 in November (1st-25th), while the correlation between EURUSD and crude fell from 0.9 in October to 0.49 in Nov. This could well be a case of oil bulls unable to keep up with USD weakness, especially as the lack of broad follow-up in global equities may not warrant real demand for oil prices to regain its $82.00 highs of the… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 25, 2009 at 5:43pm — No Comments

Positive U.S. Data to Fuel Risk Appetite

The first round of U.S. economic data this morning helped to support the rally in risk currencies. The EUR/USD has finally taken out the key 1.50 level which should not be surprising for our readers since we said throughout the week that a break is imminent. We continue to believe that the U.S. dollar could fall another 5 to 7 percent (more like 4 to 6 percent at this point) over the next few months.



The big surprise this morning was the sharp decline in jobless claims. For the week… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 25, 2009 at 4:26pm — No Comments

U.S. DOLLAR: WHAT THE FED EXPECTS

The price action in the currency market over the past 24 hours suggests that foreign exchange traders may have already gone into holiday mode. Intraday trading ranges are beginning to shrink and the performance of the dollar was mixed against the key currencies. For example, the dollar traded higher against the British pound and commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) but fell against the euro, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Although U.S. equities ended the NY trading session in negative territory,… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 11:30pm — No Comments

Fed pleased with U.S. growth, leery of policy risks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials are increasingly confident the U.S. economic recovery is sustainable, but they do not see employment picking up soon, according to minutes from their November meeting released on Tuesday.



Policymakers also expressed concern about possible adverse repercussions from their vow to keep interest rates low for an extended period, including unwanted speculation in financial markets.



"Members noted the possibility that some… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 8:24pm — No Comments

Intraday Market Thought from Ashraf Laidi 2009.11.24 10:39

US Q3 GDP was revised down to 2.8% from the initial 3.5% reading while the personal consumption component was revised to 2.9% from 3.2%. Risk currencies are faring better than prior to the figures, but with equity indices yet again failing to near those 50% retracement levels (we shall not stop emphasizing this point as long as the indices remain near them), we continue to have a clear case of lower highs in JPY crosses and the inability for EURUSD to regain $1.5050. The release of the FOMC… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 6:07pm — No Comments

FTSE 100 update @ 15.43

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 3:44pm — No Comments

FTSE 1000 ....key support level ....13.42

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 1:43pm — No Comments

FTSE 100 .......................could we see 5500?

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 12:28pm — No Comments

Intraday Market Thought from Ashraf Laidi 2009.11.24 05:24

GBP DROPS AS KING SPEAKS seems to be the recurring headline each time the head of the Bank of England testifies. GBP drops below $1.65 as BoEs King testifies to Parliament, but this time sterling losses are part of overall risk aversion. Nikkei (-1%) once again failed to rise despite the +1.3% gains in Dow and S&P500. MARKETS ARE JITTERY AHEAD of US Q3 GDP, expected to be revised to as low as 2.7% from the initial estimate of 3.5%. GBPUSD testing the 61.8% retracement of the 1.6265-1.6874… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 11:00am — No Comments

IFO Beats But Provides Little Lift

IFO survey of business sentiment printed better than expected for the first time in three months lifting the EUR/USD off the session lows in morning European trade. The IFO rose to 93.9 versus 92.6 forecast – a full two point gain from the month prior. The current assessment index also rose to 89.1 from 88.0 projected.



The upside result in IFO was impressive but not surprising given yesterday’s better than forecast PMI readings which continue to indicate that EZ manufacturing and… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 9:43am — No Comments

FTSE 100 .......morning update @ 8.54 am. Key level , 5316 support

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 24, 2009 at 8:30am — No Comments

Intraday Market Thought from Ashraf Laidi 2009.11.23 13:37

The 10% increase in Oct existing home sales was nearly 10 times greater than expected but currencies fail to show any significant shift towards risk plays, as EURUSD remains shy of $1.50, $GBPUSD under at 1.67 and USDCAD above 1.05. The REAL TEST will be tomorrows preliminary (second revision) of US Q3 GDP, expected to be revised to 2.8% from 3.5% (range 2.5%-3.4%). $1.5050 remains a psychological level, while $1.5055-60 is the more relevant resistance, a breach of which this time could… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 23, 2009 at 6:47pm — No Comments

What will trigger a correction?

Much ink hasbeen spilled over the recent market quiver. The burning question now is: will the fall snowball into a correction?



On one hand, the bears are desparately trying to talk down the market. The key charge they made is that the economy is still in shambles. The soaring deficit and rising unemployment - both in the US and UK - are signs of a deteriorating economy. Moreover, they contend that the market has run ahead of itself, thus opening the doors for a big retracement. The… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 23, 2009 at 6:13pm — No Comments

EUR/USD ..previous resistance = support

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 23, 2009 at 4:48pm — No Comments

Existing Home Sales Surge, Dollar Carry Trade in Play

Risk currencies opened higher this morning following strong PMI numbers from Europe and comments from Fed President Bullard. Last week, Bullard suggested that the Fed may not raise interest rates until 2012 and overnight, he called on the Fed to extend its authority to buy Mortgage Backed Securities and Agency bonds beyond March. Although this represents a departure from his typically more hawkish stance, it is important to remember that Bullard is a non voting member of the FOMC. Yet, there is… Continue

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 23, 2009 at 3:13pm — No Comments

Intraday Market Thought from Ashraf Laidi 2009.11.23 09:45

Ashrafs interview earlier on Bloomberg TV http://bit.ly/5Zq7lI / The limits of risk appetite are being pushed towards 092.90 in AUDJPY, 0.9315 in AUDUSD and 1.6680 in GBPUSD. Oil attempts to regain 80, but once again, it is the importance of having an intraweek high above 80.50 that would suggest a potential break of 5-week downtrend. Gold options strike prices held at $1,200, imposing resistance at 1,190-95.

Added by Aadil (site owner) on November 23, 2009 at 3:12pm — No Comments

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